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Indecision 2004, a spreadsheet-based prediction

Methodology: Calculate margin of victory for each election, with half credit for spoiler votes. Compute root-mean-square to smooth down peaks. 2000 gets half the total weighting.

EV RMS AG GWB RN 2000 BC BD RP 1996 BC GB RP 1992 MD GB 1988 WM RR 1984
3 District -76 85 9 5 -79 85 9 2 -75 85 9 4 -76 83 14 -69 85 14 -71
4 Rhode Island -21 61 32 6 -32 60 27 11 -27 47 29 23 -18 56 44 -12 48 52 4
12 Massachusetts -20 60 33 6 -31 62 28 9 -29 48 29 23 -19 53 45 -8 48 51 3
31 New York -16 60 35 4 -27 58 30 8 -24 47 29 15 -19 52 48 -4 46 54 8
4 Hawaii -13 56 38 6 -21 57 32 8 -22 48 37 14 -11 54 45 -9 44 55 11
10 Maryland -7 57 40 3 -18 54 38 7 -13 50 36 14 -14 48 51 3 47 53 6
7 Connecticut -6 56 38 4 -20 53 35 10 -13 42 36 22 -6 47 52 5 39 61 22
10 Minnesota -6 48 46 5 -5 51 35 12 -10 44 32 24 -12 53 46 -7 50 50 0
3 Vermont -6 51 41 7 -13 53 31 12 -16 46 30 23 -16 48 51 3 41 58 17
21 Illinois -6 55 43 2 -13 54 37 8 -14 49 34 17 -14 49 51 2 43 56 13
55 California -5 53 42 4 -14 51 38 7 -9 46 33 21 -13 48 51 3 41 58 17
11 Washington -5 50 45 4 -8 50 37 9 -8 43 32 24 -11 50 48 -2 43 56 13
15 New Jersey -4 56 40 3 -17 54 36 9 -14 43 41 16 -2 43 56 13 39 60 21
3 Delaware -4 55 42 3 -14 52 37 11 -10 44 35 20 -8 43 56 13 40 60 20
7 Oregon -3 47 47 5 -3 47 39 9 -4 43 33 24 -10 51 47 -4 44 56 12
7 Iowa -2 49 48 2 -1 50 40 9 -6 43 37 19 -6 55 45 -10 46 53 7
4 Maine -2 49 44 6 -8 52 31 14 -14 39 30 30 -8 44 55 11 39 61 22
21 Pennsylvania -2 51 46 2 -5 49 40 10 -4 45 36 18 -9 48 51 3 46 53 7
10 Wisconsin -2 48 48 4 -2 49 39 10 -5 41 37 22 -4 51 48 -3 45 54 9
17 Michigan -2 51 46 2 -6 52 39 9 -9 44 36 19 -7 46 54 8 40 59 19
5 New Mexico -1 48 48 4 -2 49 42 6 -4 46 37 16 -9 47 52 5 39 60 21
5 West Virginia 0 46 52 2 6 52 37 11 -9 48 35 16 -13 52 47 -5 45 55 10
27 Florida 0 49 49 2 -1 48 42 9 -1 39 41 20 2 39 61 22 35 65 30
11 Missouri 1 47 50 2 3 48 41 10 -1 44 34 22 -10 48 52 4 40 60 20
6 Arkansas 1 46 51 2 5 54 37 8 -13 53 36 10 -18 42 56 14 38 61 23
4 New Hampshire 1 46 49 4 0 50 40 10 -5 39 38 23 -1 36 62 26 31 69 38
20 Ohio 1 46 50 3 2 47 41 11 -1 40 38 21 -2 44 55 11 40 59 19
9 Louisiana 2 45 53 1 7 52 40 7 -9 46 41 12 -5 44 54 10 38 61 23
11 Tennessee 2 47 51 1 3 48 46 6 0 47 42 10 -5 42 58 16 42 58 16
5 Nevada 4 46 50 3 2 44 43 10 4 37 35 26 -3 38 59 21 32 66 34
9 Colorado 4 42 51 5 6 44 46 7 5 40 36 23 -4 45 53 8 35 63 28
10 Arizona 7 45 51 3 5 47 44 8 2 37 39 24 2 39 60 21 33 66 33
8 Kentucky 7 41 56 2 14 46 45 9 3 45 41 14 -3 44 56 12 39 60 21
15 Georgia 8 43 55 1 12 46 47 6 4 44 43 13 -1 40 60 20 40 60 20
13 Virginia 9 45 53 2 7 45 47 7 5 41 45 14 4 39 60 21 37 62 25
15 North Carolina 11 43 56 0 13 44 49 7 8 43 43 14 1 42 58 16 38 62 24
3 Montana 11 33 58 6 22 41 44 14 10 38 35 26 -3 46 52 6 38 60 22
9 Alabama 14 42 57 1 14 43 50 6 10 41 48 11 7 40 59 19 38 61 23
8 South Carolina 14 41 57 2 15 44 50 6 9 43 47 10 4 38 62 24 36 64 28
11 Indiana 14 41 57 1 15 42 47 11 11 37 43 20 6 40 60 20 38 62 24
3 South Dakota 14 38 60 0 23 43 47 10 8 37 41 22 4 47 53 6 37 63 26
34 Texas 15 38 59 2 20 44 49 7 8 37 41 22 4 43 56 13 36 64 28
6 Mississippi 15 41 58 1 17 44 49 6 8 41 50 9 9 39 60 21 40 60 20
6 Kansas 17 37 58 3 19 36 54 9 23 34 39 27 5 43 56 13 33 66 33
7 Oklahoma 19 38 60 0 22 40 48 11 13 34 43 23 9 41 58 17 31 69 38
3 North Dakota 20 33 61 3 26 40 47 12 13 32 44 23 12 43 56 13 34 65 31
3 Alaska 23 28 59 10 26 33 51 11 23 30 40 28 9 36 60 24 30 67 37
5 Nebraska 25 33 62 4 27 35 54 11 24 29 47 24 17 39 60 21 29 71 42
3 Wyoming 27 28 68 2 39 37 50 12 19 34 40 26 6 38 61 23 28 71 43
4 Idaho 31 28 67 3 38 34 52 13 25 28 42 27 14 36 62 26 26 72 46
5 Utah 33 27 67 5 38 33 54 10 26 25 43 27 19 32 66 34 25 75 50

Post-Election Bonus Track: The Pork Barrel

Out of every dollar paid to the federal government, how much does each state get back in return? If Congress decided to practice "fiscal conservatism" and cut taxes, balance the budget, return control to the states, etc, who would lose out? TaxFoundation.org provides the unsurprising results:

Pigs At the Trough   Eating Extra Portions Breaking Even Taxed up the Wazoo
$2.03 North Dakota
$1.89 New Mexico
$1.84 Mississippi
$1.82 Alaska
$1.74 West Virginia  
$1.64 Montana
$1.61 Alabama
$1.59 South Dakota
$1.53 Arkansas
$1.52 Hawaii
$1.47 Virginia
$1.47 Oklahoma
$1.46 Kentucky
$1.44 Louisiana
$1.34 Idaho
$1.32 South Carolina  
$1.32 Missouri
$1.31 Maine
$1.24 Tennessee
$1.22 Iowa
$1.20 Maryland
$1.20 Arizona
$1.19 Nebraska
$1.14 Utah
$1.14 Kansas
$1.12 Vermont
$1.08 Pennsylvania
$1.07 North Carolina  
$1.06 Rhode Island
$1.05 Wyoming
$1.02 Ohio
$1.01 Georgia
$1.00 Oregon
$1.00 Florida
$0.99 Indiana
$0.92 Texas
$0.91 Washington
$0.90 Michigan
$0.87 Wisconsin
$0.85 Delaware
$0.81 New York
$0.81 California
$0.79 Massachusetts
$0.79 Colorado
$0.77 Minnesota
$0.77 Illinois
$0.73 Nevada
$0.68 New Hampshire
$0.64 Connecticut
$0.62 New Jersey

Creative Commons License Go back to Frankie's Politics Page, or wherever you came from. Last updated 2005/03/10.

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